BN · rank #8 · 2026-07-21
EXA
PARIS · EUR · $2.40B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.02 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +27.4% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +1.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +0.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.52 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 2.49× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +16.1% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.40B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Exail Technologies is a vertically integrated European defense-tech specialist delivering autonomous maritime drones and fiber-optic inertial navigation systems to navies and defense primes across ~80 countries.
Rationale
With 40% Q1 2026 revenue growth, an €1.1B backlog (~75% defense), a forward PEG of 0.52, and proprietary FOG-based navigation technology directly addressing naval mine-countermeasure and GPS-denied bottlenecks, the bottleneck-solver thesis is structurally reinforced by real capability scarcity rather than sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Large naval primes (e.g., Thales, Naval Group) could internalize autonomous underwater systems and inertial navigation stacks, directly eroding Exail's specialist position — the most concrete disqualifier for a bottleneck-solver moat thesis.
- 2Export control tightening on advanced maritime robotics and GPS-denied navigation equipment could gate shipments across Exail's 80-country customer base, disrupting backlog conversion and revenue visibility.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.