BN · rank #10 · 2026-07-21
HAG
XETRA · EUR · $9.96B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.27 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +17.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +4.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +3.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.35 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 6.12× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +19.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | -0% |
| Market cap (USD) | $9.96B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Hensoldt is a German defence electronics specialist providing sensors, radars, optronics and electronic warfare systems with a €9.80 billion order backlog underpinning multi-year revenue visibility across Eurofighter, Puma and Bundeswehr logistics programmes.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Hensoldt's role as Europe's scarce-capacity supplier of mission-critical sensor and EW systems — not easily replicated in-house by customers — evidenced by Q1 2026 order intake more than doubling to €1.483 billion and a book-to-bill guiding 1.5–2.0x for full-year 2026.
Material risks
- 1German MoD programme termination risk is live and concrete — the F126 frigate cancellation already demonstrates that Berlin can abruptly redirect procurement, potentially stripping expected sensor content from future platforms and creating backlog holes despite headline order strength.
- 2Debt-to-FCF of 6.1x remains elevated, and while management raised FCF conversion guidance to ~50% of adjusted EBITDA, Q1 still showed a net loss of €19 million, meaning any margin delivery shortfall in H2 would pressure the 1.5x net leverage target and dividend sustainability simultaneously.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.