BN · rank #4 · 2026-07-21
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $153.55B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.36 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +9.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +25.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +23.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.31 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.65× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +8.8% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $153.55B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a diversified aerospace and defense group co-owning the dominant narrowbody jet engine franchise (CFM LEAP) while holding sole-supplier or critical-supplier positions in A320 landing gear, missile propulsion, and now exo-atmospheric interceptor development via the Bliksem EXO consortium.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's capacity-expansion investments (hydraulic press doubling engine parts output, Casablanca landing gear factory, Mexico wiring plant) and its missile/interceptor propulsion role in European defense rearming, giving it structural revenue visibility through long-duration program contracts rather than sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1A commercial aviation demand shock that breaks the LEAP delivery supercycle would simultaneously compress OE revenue, delay aftermarket ramp, and undermine the margin expansion (2.77pp) and 9.6% revenue growth assumptions that justify the current fwd-PEG of 2.3x — this is the single scenario where the bottleneck-solver edge collapses fastest.
- 2Earnings are reported July 28, 2026 (7 days post as-of-date), creating binary event risk where any guidance revision on the €6.1–6.2B operating income target or FCF range could reprice the stock before a position matures.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.