BN · rank #6 · 2026-07-22
AMAT
NASDAQ · $448.23B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.58 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +27.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +31.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +29.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.33 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 1.21× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +10.4% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +6% |
| Market cap (USD) | $448.23B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Applied Materials is the world's largest non-lithography semiconductor equipment vendor, supplying deposition, etch, CMP, implant and inspection tools to leading fabs globally with a recurring high-margin services stream from its massive installed base.
Rationale
AMAT directly solves the advanced AI chip packaging and high-density memory bottleneck thesis — its June 2026 3D architecture tool launch, record Q2 revenue, and above-consensus Q3 guidance of $8.5–$9.5B confirm structural demand pull rather than sentiment rotation, while a 1.33x fwd PEG and 27% revenue growth signal the market has not fully priced the cycle.
Material risks
- 1Escalating U.S. export controls on China are a concrete, already-realized revenue headwind (~$600M FY2026 drag) that could deepen if enforcement tightens further, directly compressing the growth rate underpinning the bottleneck-solver thesis.
- 2High concentration in a small number of fabs (TSMC, Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) means a synchronised capex pause — particularly in DRAM, which represents ~25% of equipment demand — could rapidly deflate the forward revenue growth assumption.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.