BN · rank #3 · 2026-07-22
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $50.32B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.59 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +21.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +31.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.90 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.15× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +16.3% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +19% |
| Market cap (USD) | $50.32B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is a specialist semiconductor equipment maker whose ALD and epitaxy tools are embedded in critical process steps at leading logic/foundry nodes, making it a structural bottleneck solver with high switching costs and record 33%+ operating margins.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by ASM's sole-source ALD position at advanced logic/foundry customers, AI-driven order demand, 21.6% forward revenue growth, an 18.7% EPS beat last quarter, and expanding margins — all consistent with a durable chokepoint rather than a sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Management has guided for a double-digit decline in China sales in 2026 due to export restrictions, removing a meaningful revenue contributor and creating a near-term growth headwind that could pressure the forward estimates underpinning the signal.
- 2Earnings are reported six days after the as-of date (July 28), creating binary event risk where any Q2 guidance cut — particularly on China or AI capex pacing — could gap the stock against the position before it can be managed.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.