Bottleneck Solvers

BN · rank #11 · 2026-07-22

HAG

XETRA · EUR · $10.14B (USD)

SignalBuy2.2strength 2.2 / 10
verdict · PROCEED

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Bottleneck themes
The structural shortage this name supplies into.
European defense ammunition bottleneck
Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank.
-0.26
Forward revenue growth
Consensus forward revenue growth.
+17.3%
Forward net margin
Consensus forward net margin.
+4.4%
Net margin TTM
Trailing twelve month net margin.
+3.9%
Margin expansion
Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points).
+0.5%
Forward PEG
Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth.
1.35
Debt / FCF
Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer.
6.12×
Analyst upside
Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price.
+18.4%
Last EPS surprise
Most recent reported EPS versus consensus.
-0%
Market cap (USD)$10.14B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

Hensoldt is a German defence-electronics specialist providing sensors, radars, optronics and electronic warfare systems with a €9.80 billion order backlog underpinning multi-year revenue visibility across Eurofighter, Puma and Bundeswehr logistics programmes.

Rationale

The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Hensoldt's sole-supplier or deeply integrated position in European sensor and EW capacity, evidenced by Q1 order intake more than doubling to €1.483 billion and a 1.5–2.0x book-to-bill guide, confirming structural demand that cannot be quickly replicated in-house by customers.

Material risks

  • 1German MoD programme termination risk is live and concrete — the F126 frigate cancellation already demonstrates that Berlin can abruptly redirect procurement, potentially stripping expected sensor content from future platforms and compressing the backlog quality.
  • 2At debt-to-FCF of 6.1x and a Q1 net loss of €19 million, the balance sheet leaves limited buffer if FCF conversion misses the newly raised ~50% guidance, particularly given heavy upfront programme investment cycles typical in defence electronics.

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Proceed
Claude
Proceed
Gemini
Proceed