BN · rank #20 · 2026-07-22
HWM
NYSE · $111.63B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.00 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +13.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +21.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +20.2% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.80 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 3.27× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +11.7% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +10% |
| Market cap (USD) | $111.63B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Howmet Aerospace is a large-cap manufacturer of sole-source, platform-qualified jet engine components, aerospace fasteners, and structural parts deeply embedded in commercial and defense OEM supply chains.
Rationale
HWM fits the bottleneck_solver thesis precisely — certified fasteners and specialty castings/forgings face genuine capacity constraints, Howmet holds primary-source positions with long platform qualifications, and Q1 2026's 19% revenue growth plus raised guidance confirm the bottleneck is actively monetizing, not merely anticipated.
Material risks
- 1OEM dual-sourcing or in-house qualification of fasteners and structural components is the most direct thesis-breaker, as it would erode the sole-source pricing power that underpins the entire bottleneck-solver edge.
- 2CAM and Brunner integration execution risk is material at ~$1.8B deployed — customer concentration overlap, pricing harmonization failure, or synergy shortfalls could compress the margin expansion trajectory that justifies the current valuation.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.