BN · rank #5 · 2026-07-22
LRCX
NASDAQ · $402.68B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.76 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +32.9% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +33.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +30.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.2% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.77 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.58× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +14.4% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +8% |
| Market cap (USD) | $402.68B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Lam Research is a leading wafer fabrication equipment supplier specializing in etch and deposition tools that are critical bottlenecks for manufacturing advanced DRAM, NAND, and logic chips powering AI infrastructure.
Rationale
Record Q3 revenue of $5.84B, Q4 guidance of up to $7.0B, 33% forward net margins, and explicit management commentary on AI-driven memory demand directly reinforce the bottleneck-solver thesis — Lam's tools are structurally required to scale HBM and advanced DRAM capacity, not merely riding sentiment.
Material risks
- 1Export control escalation targeting China shipments is the most concrete near-term thesis disqualifier, as China has historically represented a meaningful revenue segment and incremental restrictions could force a guidance cut ahead of or at the July 29 print.
- 2A shift in AI memory architecture — such as broader adoption of processing-in-memory or alternative packaging approaches that reduce etch-intensive process steps — could structurally reduce Lam's bottleneck role even as overall AI chip demand grows.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.