Bottleneck Solvers

BN · rank #16 · 2026-07-22

ON

NASDAQ · $35.44B (USD)

SignalBuy2.5strength 2.5 / 10
verdict · PROCEED

The exact numbers the algorithm saw.

Bottleneck themes
The structural shortage this name supplies into.
Advanced AI chip packaging and memory
Factor scores and the inputs behind this pick.
Composite score
Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank.
0.21
Forward revenue growth
Consensus forward revenue growth.
+11.3%
Forward net margin
Consensus forward net margin.
+11.8%
Net margin TTM
Trailing twelve month net margin.
+9.5%
Margin expansion
Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points).
+2.4%
Forward PEG
Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth.
0.29
Debt / FCF
Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer.
2.07×
Analyst upside
Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price.
+24.7%
Last EPS surprise
Most recent reported EPS versus consensus.
+3%
Market cap (USD)$35.44B

The AI research card

Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.

Summary

ON Semiconductor designs and manufactures power and sensing semiconductors, with growing exposure to AI data center power management and automotive electrification.

Rationale

AI data center revenue more than doubling YoY validates the bottleneck-solver thesis — ON's silicon carbide and intelligent power modules are structural supply constraints for high-density compute and EV power conversion, not commodity components.

Material risks

  • 1Automotive recovery is still nascent and ON is exiting $30–40M of non-core revenue, meaning near-term top-line growth depends heavily on AI data center concentration in a market where hyperscalers are increasingly designing custom power solutions in-house.
  • 2Institutional 13F median change of -0.23% signals smart money is trimming, and with debt/FCF at 2.1x, any demand air pocket in either auto or data center compresses FCF headroom for buybacks or R&D defense.

AI verdict council

Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.

OpenAI
Proceed
Claude
Proceed
Gemini
Error