BN · rank #14 · 2026-07-22
ONTO
NYSE · $14.88B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.25 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +23.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +11.6% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +10.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.2% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.30 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.07× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +23.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +0% |
| Market cap (USD) | $14.88B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Onto Innovation supplies optical metrology and inspection tools that serve as critical process-control bottlenecks in advanced packaging and leading-edge node production for AI chips and high-bandwidth memory.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by over $100M in named AI-packaging orders, sequential revenue acceleration into Q2 guidance of $320–$330M, and a forward PEG of 1.30 against 23% revenue growth — pricing in the structural role without demanding perfection.
Material risks
- 1Concentration in AI-related advanced packaging means any pause or cancellation in hyperscaler/foundry capex — the single cycle driving the entire near-term ramp — would collapse the revenue visibility that underpins the thesis.
- 2Export-control tightening on advanced-node and advanced-packaging equipment could restrict shipments to key Asian customers, directly shrinking the addressable installed-base growth that justifies the premium multiple.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.