BN · rank #11 · 2026-07-23
MTSI
NASDAQ · $21.56B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.48 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +26.8% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +17.9% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +16.5% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.4% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.05 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 2.47× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +41.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +2% |
| Market cap (USD) | $21.56B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) designs analog, RF, microwave, and photonic semiconductor components sold into data center, industrial/defense, and telecom infrastructure platforms where switching costs are high and design cycles are long.
Rationale
Record Q3 FY2025 revenue of $252M (+32% YoY) with balanced growth across data center, defense, and telecom confirms MTSI is actively solving high-speed signal-chain bottlenecks in AI infrastructure buildouts, directly reinforcing the bottleneck_solver thesis with real revenue rather than sentiment.
Material risks
- 1MTSI's data center optical/photonic components face displacement risk if hyperscalers accelerate co-packaged optics programs that vertically integrate signal-chain functions currently sourced from MACOM, eroding its designed-in position.
- 2At debt-to-FCF of 2.47x and a fwd PEG of 2.05, the valuation leaves little room for execution misses, and telecom ($68M/quarter) remains a cyclically soft end market that could drag blended growth below the 26.8% consensus embedded in the price.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 1 of 3 voted to proceed.