BN · rank #17 · 2026-07-23
NVMI
NASDAQ · $14.45B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.25 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +21.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +29.7% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +29.2% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.46 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 4.12× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +32.8% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +6% |
| Market cap (USD) | $14.45B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Nova Ltd is a semiconductor process control and metrology company supplying optical, X-ray, and chemical measurement systems critical to advanced logic, memory, and AI-driven packaging fabs.
Rationale
NVMI fits the bottleneck_solver thesis directly — rising 3D complexity in HBM and advanced packaging structurally increases metrology intensity, and Nova's record Metrion X-ray adoption and AncoScene traction confirm it is winning at the exact measurement bottlenecks AI chip scaling creates.
Material risks
- 1KLA or Onto Innovation could displace Nova at a key customer node through broader portfolio leverage or aggressive pricing, eroding the share gains in advanced DRAM and packaging that underpin the forward growth assumption.
- 2AI/HBM capex concentration means a deceleration in hyperscaler or memory-maker spending would disproportionately hit Nova's revenue given its outsized exposure to exactly those end-markets driving current outperformance.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.