BN · rank #16 · 2026-07-23
ONTO
NYSE · $14.69B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.26 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +21.7% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +11.7% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +10.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.4% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.39 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.07× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +25.2% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +0% |
| Market cap (USD) | $14.69B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Onto Innovation supplies optical metrology and process-control inspection tools that are critical bottleneck-solvers in advanced packaging and leading-edge node production for AI chips and high-bandwidth memory.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by over $100M in named AI-packaging orders, sequential revenue acceleration into Q2 guidance of $320–$330M, and a specialized 2D/3D metrology position at yield-critical steps where customers cannot easily substitute.
Material risks
- 1Larger process-control incumbents (KLA) or customer in-house metrology development could erode ONTO's sole-source position in advanced packaging inspection, which is the structural pillar of the bottleneck thesis.
- 2Demand concentration in AI-driven advanced packaging means any pause in hyperscaler or TSMC/HBM capex cycles would hit ONTO disproportionately, given limited diversification across end-markets.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.