BN · rank #3 · 2026-07-23
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $153.74B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.35 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +9.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +25.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +23.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.27 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.65× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +8.0% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $153.74B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a diversified aerospace and defense group co-owning the dominant narrowbody jet engine franchise (CFM LEAP) and holding sole-supplier positions in A320 landing gear, missile propulsion, and European interceptor programs that make it a structural bottleneck in both civil and defense supply chains.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solvers thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's participation in the Bliksem EXO exo-atmospheric interceptor consortium, active missile propulsion capacity expansion, and Rafale engine production ramp in India — all addressing real European defense propulsion and interceptor constraints with no near-term substitute supplier.
Material risks
- 1The terminated Exail Technologies acquisition signals M&A execution friction, and any further portfolio missteps or capital misallocation ahead of the July 28 earnings release could reset guidance on the €6.1–6.2B operating income target that underpins the margin expansion thesis.
- 2A commercial aviation demand shock (airline capacity cuts or LEAP delivery deferrals) would simultaneously compress the aftermarket flywheel and expose the 25.8% forward net margin as dependent on a civil supercycle that is not guaranteed to persist.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.