BN · rank #12 · 2026-07-23
TSM
NYSE · $2.18T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.36 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +31.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +48.5% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +49.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.07 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.82× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +25.2% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +11% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.18T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant advanced-node contract foundry, manufacturing the majority of leading-edge AI and HPC chips for fabless customers including Nvidia, Apple, and AMD, with ~77% of wafer revenue from 7nm-and-below nodes.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by TSMC's sole-source position in CoWoS advanced packaging (scaling from 13K to ~125K WPSM by late 2026) and leading-edge logic, with 33%+ revenue growth, a 11.4% EPS beat, and Q3 guidance of $44.6–$45.8B confirming durable, contracted demand rather than sentiment-driven rotation.
Material risks
- 1Geopolitical escalation or expanded U.S./China export controls targeting Taiwan or advanced AI chip shipments could disrupt fab operations and force customer reallocation, directly breaking the bottleneck-solver thesis at its geographic single point of failure.
- 2Institutional 13F median position change of -2.9% across 20 reporters signals smart-money trimming post-earnings, and with a $2.18T market cap already pricing significant execution, any Q3 miss on CoWoS ramp or margin guidance would compress the fwd PEG of 1.07 rapidly.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.