BN · rank #8 · 2026-07-24
AM
PARIS · EUR · $26.70B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.08 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +12.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +12.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.7% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.29 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.06× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +17.0% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $26.70B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Dassault Aviation is a French aerospace prime selling Rafale fighters and Falcon business jets, with a €45bn+ backlog and heavy exposure to export-led defense demand.
Rationale
The H1 2026 print reinforced the bottleneck-solver thesis by showing 46–50% sales growth, ~12% net margin, strong free cash flow, and very low leverage, all backed by long-cycle Rafale export contracts and multi-year backlog visibility.
Material risks
- 1The biggest thesis risk is the sharp H1 2026 order intake drop to about €2.9bn from €8.1bn, which raises concern that backlog replenishment could slow once current Rafale campaigns are delivered.
- 2Strategic uncertainty after the collapse of Europe’s next-generation fighter program could cap long-term growth and leave Dassault more dependent on lumpy export wins and French/European procurement politics.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 1 of 3 voted to proceed.