BN · rank #3 · 2026-07-24
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $48.58B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.69 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +21.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +31.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.98 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.15× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +20.2% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +19% |
| Market cap (USD) | $48.58B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is the global leader in single-wafer ALD and advanced epitaxy tools, serving as a process-of-record supplier for 2nm gate-all-around and sub-2nm logic at leading foundries and DRAM makers.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by ASM's indispensable ALD/epi role in GAA transistor formation, a €1.5–1.6B backlog providing multi-quarter revenue visibility, 18.7% Q1 2026 EPS beat, and ~21.5% forward revenue growth at a 1.98 PEG — structural scarcity pricing, not sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1Aggressive dual-sourcing by TSMC, Samsung, or SK Hynix toward TEL, Lam, or Kokusai batch ALD — the one scenario that directly breaks the sole-supplier bottleneck moat underpinning this thesis.
- 2China export-control escalation could abruptly remove a "relatively solid" revenue contributor from an already concentrated customer base, creating a near-term order-book air pocket ahead of the July 28 earnings print.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.