BN · rank #19 · 2026-07-24
HWM
NYSE · $114.87B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.02 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +13.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +21.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +20.2% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.80 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 3.27× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +8.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +10% |
| Market cap (USD) | $114.87B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Howmet Aerospace is a sole-source-qualified supplier of precision jet engine components, aerospace fasteners, and structural hardware to Boeing, Airbus, and industrial gas turbine OEMs, with deeply embedded platform qualifications that create durable switching costs.
Rationale
HWM fits the bottleneck-solver thesis directly — its components are long-cycle qualified into aircraft and turbine platforms with limited approved alternatives, making it a structural chokepoint as OEM build rates accelerate and the macro theme of defense/energetics capacity expansion adds an incremental demand layer.
Material risks
- 1Boeing and Airbus production rate normalization or another 737 MAX-style halt would compress HWM's volume leverage rapidly, as commercial aerospace concentration means a single OEM disruption disproportionately hits utilization and pricing power.
- 2Debt-to-FCF of 3.3x leaves limited cushion if working capital demands surge alongside the guided revenue ramp to ~$9.65B, and institutional 13F median change turning slightly negative (-0.12%) hints at early smart-money trimming near all-time highs.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.