BN · rank #5 · 2026-07-24
LRCX
NASDAQ · $399.91B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.78 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +33.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +33.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +30.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.2% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.84 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.58× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +15.2% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +8% |
| Market cap (USD) | $399.91B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Lam Research is the dominant provider of etch and deposition wafer fabrication equipment, serving as a structural bottleneck in manufacturing advanced AI memory (HBM, DRAM) and logic chips at scale.
Rationale
Three consecutive record revenue quarters, a $2.1B CSBG services anchor, $2.22B deferred revenue, and management's raised WFE outlook confirm Lam is actively capturing—not merely anticipating—the AI-driven capex cycle that defines the bottleneck_solvers thesis.
Material risks
- 1China represented 40%+ of revenue and tightening U.S. export controls on advanced chipmaking equipment could abruptly remove a disproportionate share of Lam's order book, directly breaking the revenue visibility that underpins the bottleneck moat thesis.
- 2The July 29 earnings print (5 days post as_of_date) creates binary event risk where any guidance cut or cautious China commentary could reprice the stock before the trade matures.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.