BN · rank #5 · 2026-07-24
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $153.06B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.38 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +9.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +25.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +23.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.27 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.65× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +9.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $153.06B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a global aerospace and defense group whose CFM partnership with GE Aerospace makes it a structural bottleneck in narrowbody propulsion, with growing exposure to high-margin aftermarket services and European counter-drone defense electronics.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's sole-supplier position in CFM56/LEAP engines across the installed Airbus and Boeing narrowbody fleet, long-duration service contracts with high switching costs, and Q1 2026 organic growth of 23% confirming that capacity constraints are translating into pricing power and revenue acceleration.
Material risks
- 1CFM partnership concentration means any Boeing production disruption, OEM in-house propulsion initiative, or accelerated open-fan timeline could erode Safran's single-source leverage on the world's highest-volume engine program — the one structural disqualifier most relevant to this strategy.
- 2Currency headwinds already reduced Q1 2026 reported revenue by ~€600 million versus organic growth, and with H1 2026 results due July 28 (four days after signal date), near-term earnings risk could create a volatile entry window regardless of thesis validity.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.