BN · rank #9 · 2026-07-24
TSM
NYSE · $2.16T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.37 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +31.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +48.5% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +49.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.08 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.82× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +26.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +11% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.16T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant advanced-node contract foundry, generating ~$40B quarterly revenue with 67.7% gross margins driven overwhelmingly by AI/HPC chip demand at leading-edge nodes (7nm and below = 77% of wafer revenue).
Rationale
The bottleneck_solvers thesis is directly reinforced: TSMC is the literal single-source constraint for advanced AI chip production, and its announcement of three new advanced packaging plants plus a $265B Arizona 2nm buildout confirms it is actively expanding to relieve that bottleneck rather than ceding ground.
Material risks
- 1Massive Arizona capex ($265B across multiple fabs) is structurally diluting margins during ramp — management already guided a gross-margin dip in Q3 2026 due to 2nm ramp and overseas fab dilution, threatening the fwd_net_margin_pct of 48.5% embedded in the signal.
- 2Geopolitical concentration risk in Taiwan remains an unhedgeable binary — cross-strait escalation or U.S. export-control shocks could disrupt the very bottleneck position the thesis depends on, and institutional 13F median change of -2.9% suggests smart money is already trimming exposure.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.