BN · rank #6 · 2026-07-27
AMAT
NASDAQ · $425.76B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.63 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +28.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +31.5% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +29.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.35 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 1.21× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +17.0% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +6% |
| Market cap (USD) | $425.76B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Applied Materials is the world's largest semiconductor equipment supplier, providing deposition, etch, inspection, and advanced packaging tools that are deeply embedded in leading-edge logic, DRAM, and HBM process flows at major foundries and memory makers.
Rationale
AMAT screens validly as a bottleneck solver because its tools address non-substitutable process steps in HBM and advanced packaging capacity buildouts, its AGS segment provides recurring installed-base revenue that signals structural entrenchment rather than cyclical sentiment, and record Q2 FY2026 results with 32.1% operating margin confirm the thesis is live and compounding.
Material risks
- 1U.S. export control expansion is a concrete, partially realized revenue headwind of $600–710M in FY2026, directly eroding the revenue growth signal (28.33% fwd) and threatening to widen if China restrictions tighten further, which would structurally shrink AMAT's addressable market rather than merely delay it.
- 2Foundry and memory capex cyclicality — if leading customers (TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix) slow advanced packaging or HBM investment in response to AI demand normalization, AMAT's order backlog visibility compresses and the bottleneck-solver premium in the multiple collapses.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.