BN · rank #3 · 2026-07-27
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $47.91B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.71 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +21.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +31.9% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.9% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.90 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.15× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +22.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +19% |
| Market cap (USD) | $47.91B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is the global leader in single-wafer ALD and advanced epitaxy tools, serving as process-of-record for gate-all-around transistors at 2nm and below across leading foundries and DRAM makers.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced — ASM's ALD tools are structurally indispensable for GAA and EUV-intensive nodes, its €1.5–1.6B backlog provides multi-quarter revenue visibility, and a 21.6% forward revenue growth rate with 18.7% EPS surprise confirms the moat is translating into financials.
Material risks
- 1Aggressive dual-sourcing by TSMC, Samsung, or SK Hynix toward TEL, Lam, or Kokusai batch ALD — the one scenario that would directly erode ASM's process-of-record status and compress the backlog conversion rate that underpins the thesis.
- 2China export-control escalation could abruptly remove a "relatively solid" revenue contributor with limited ability to redirect tool shipments to other customers on short notice, creating a near-term order gap ahead of the July 28 earnings print.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.