BN · rank #17 · 2026-07-27
HWM
NYSE · $115.74B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.05 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +13.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +21.4% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +20.2% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.80 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 3.27× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +7.8% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +10% |
| Market cap (USD) | $115.74B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Howmet Aerospace is a sole-source or limited-source supplier of highly engineered jet engine components, fasteners, and structural hardware deeply qualified into Boeing, Airbus, and industrial gas turbine platforms.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced — Howmet sits at a structural chokepoint in aerospace supply chains where customer qualification barriers, long-cycle platform embedment, and constrained titanium/superalloy processing capacity make substitution practically infeasible, supporting the pricing power and margin expansion the model flags.
Material risks
- 1Boeing and Airbus production rate execution risk — if OEM build rates stall again (737 MAX-style disruptions or Airbus A320 supply chain snags), Howmet's high-utilization model converts quickly from operating leverage to volume shortfall, directly breaking the revenue growth assumption.
- 2Debt-to-FCF of 3.27x leaves limited cushion if aerospace demand softens, and the negative solver composite score (-0.048) combined with institutional 13F median net selling (-0.12%) suggests smart money is quietly trimming despite the strong fundamental narrative.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.