BN · rank #6 · 2026-07-27
R3NK
XETRA · EUR · $5.16B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.14 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +17.7% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +8.9% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +8.3% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | — |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 4.72× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +45.0% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | -83% |
| Market cap (USD) | $5.16B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
RENK Group AG is a specialist military drivetrain and propulsion systems supplier—gearboxes, transmissions, naval gearboxes—deeply embedded in platforms like the Leopard 2 MBT and U.S. Army vehicle fleets, with a record €6.9bn order backlog underpinning multi-year revenue visibility.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solvers thesis is directly reinforced: RENK holds sole-supplier or qualified-supplier positions on critical propulsion components with long qualification cycles and high switching costs, and the David Brown Defence acquisition extends that moat into naval gearboxes precisely where European rearmament is creating capacity constraints.
Material risks
- 1Execution risk on David Brown Defence integration and production capacity scaling is the most immediate thesis-breaker—a stumble here could compress margins and delay the naval revenue ramp that justifies the current backlog premium, particularly given debt-to-FCF of 4.7x leaving limited financial cushion.
- 2The last EPS surprise of -82.6% signals a meaningful gap between reported earnings and consensus expectations, raising the possibility that margin conversion on the surging backlog is weaker than modeled, which could pressure the stock even as order intake remains strong.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.