BN · rank #5 · 2026-07-27
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $155.85B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.26 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +9.6% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +25.8% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +23.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.31 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.65× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +7.1% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $155.85B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a global aerospace and defense group whose CFM partnership with GE Aerospace makes it a structural bottleneck in narrowbody propulsion, with high-margin aftermarket services providing durable revenue visibility.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solvers thesis is directly reinforced — Safran holds single-source or duopoly positions in CFM engines installed on Airbus and Boeing narrowbodies, faces surging civil MRO demand it cannot easily be displaced from, and is expanding into European counter-UAS defense electronics where spending is accelerating, all while growing revenue 23% organically in Q1 2026 with guided FCF of €4.4–4.6 billion.
Material risks
- 1Boeing or Airbus accelerating in-house or alternative propulsion development (e.g. next-generation engine programs that bypass CFM) would directly erode the sole-supplier bottleneck that underpins the entire thesis, though no concrete near-term displacement signal exists in the current brief.
- 2EUR/USD and broader currency headwinds already cut ~€600 million from Q1 reported revenue and could materially compress FCF and margins relative to guidance, particularly given the additional €470 million French corporate surtax drag baked into 2026 free cash flow targets.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.