BN · rank #9 · 2026-07-27
TSM
NYSE · $2.09T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.34 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +32.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +48.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +49.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.03 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.82× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +33.2% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +11% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.09T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant advanced-node contract foundry, generating ~$40B quarterly revenue with 67.7% gross margins driven overwhelmingly by AI/HPC chip demand at leading-edge nodes.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solver thesis is directly reinforced — TSMC is the literal single-source constraint for advanced AI chip production, and its announced three new packaging plants plus $265B Arizona 2nm buildout confirm it is actively expanding that bottleneck capacity with 32% forward revenue growth and a 1.03x PEG.
Material risks
- 1Geopolitical concentration risk is the primary thesis-breaker — a Taiwan Strait escalation or export-control shock could instantly sever TSMC's ability to serve its entire advanced-node customer base, rendering the bottleneck-solver moat irrelevant overnight.
- 2Massive Arizona capex ($265B across multiple fabs) is structurally diluting margins during ramp-up, with management guiding for gross-margin compression in Q3 2026 and the model already flagging -1.76% margin expansion, threatening the quality component of the signal.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.