BN · rank #1 · 2026-10-19
AIXA
XETRA · EUR · $4.17B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 1.48 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +42.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +16.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +12.1% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +3.9% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.08 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 1.28× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +46.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +31% |
| Market cap (USD) | $4.17B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
AIXTRON SE designs and sells MOCVD/CVD epitaxial deposition systems for compound semiconductors, with optoelectronics (InP lasers for AI datacenters) now representing over 54% of equipment revenue and driving a sharp Q3 2026 order recovery to ~€275 million.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by AIXTRON's ~77% global MOCVD share, validated Lumentum G10-AsP qualifications, a backlog that nearly doubled to ~€457 million, and 42% forward revenue growth driven by a structural AI-optical interconnect ramp that competitors cannot immediately replicate.
Material risks
- 1Lumentum or other laser OEMs qualifying Veeco systems or building in-house epitaxy capacity would directly dissolve the bottleneck moat that justifies the premium multiple and order momentum.
- 2H1 2026 revenue was down 30% year-over-year at €174.5 million, meaning the bull case is entirely backlog/order-intake dependent — any demand normalization or export-control shock to China exposure would expose significant earnings downside before the recovery fully materializes.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.