BN · rank #3 · 2026-10-19
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $41.31B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 1.01 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +33.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.25 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.10× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +52.5% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +5% |
| Market cap (USD) | $41.31B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is a Dutch semiconductor equipment maker with >55% single-wafer ALD market share, supplying atomically controlled thin-film deposition and epitaxy tools critical to 2nm/3nm logic, HBM DRAM, and advanced packaging.
Rationale
Record Q2 revenue, a Q3 guide of €1.1B, a 2027 target raised above prior range, 30% forward revenue growth, a 1.25x PEG, and 52% analyst upside collectively confirm ASM is a structural bottleneck-solver—not a sentiment rotation—with durable qualification-based moat and expanding process steps per wafer.
Material risks
- 1China export-control escalation is the sharpest near-term thesis-breaker, as continued China sales are embedded in both current revenue and the raised 2027 target, and a sudden restriction would force a guidance collapse.
- 2Tokyo Electron, Applied Materials, or Lam Research qualifying into ALD/Epi slots at a key logic or HBM customer could erode ASM's >55% share and compress the qualification moat that underpins the bottleneck-solver thesis.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.