BN · rank #9 · 2026-10-19
MTSI
NASDAQ · $20.03B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.53 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +35.9% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +23.5% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +20.7% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.8% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.05 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 3.12× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +50.8% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +4% |
| Market cap (USD) | $20.03B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
MACOM Technology Solutions designs high-speed optical, RF, and GaN semiconductors that sit at critical bandwidth and signal-integrity bottlenecks in AI data-center interconnects and aerospace/defense systems.
Rationale
Record 35.8% revenue growth, a 1.6:1 book-to-bill, Q4 guidance of $415–$425M, and the 3.2T optical chipset launch directly confirm MTSI as an active bottleneck-solver with near-term revenue visibility — precisely the structural edge this strategy requires.
Material risks
- 1Hyperscalers or optical-module vendors qualifying competing 1.6T/3.2T components (or vertically integrating) could erode MACOM's design-win position without a disclosed sole-source contract to anchor the backlog conversion.
- 2Rapid optical architecture shifts — co-packaged optics, silicon photonics, linear-drive — could displace PAM-4 front-end chipsets and strand MACOM's current product roadmap before 3.2T volumes fully ramp.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.