BN · rank #12 · 2026-10-19
ONTO
NYSE · $10.83B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.33 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.8% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.8% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.2% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.76 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 5.83× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +75.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +15% |
| Market cap (USD) | $10.83B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Onto Innovation designs and sells process-control inspection and metrology systems that are critical gatekeepers in advanced-node logic, HBM, and 2.5D packaging production lines.
Rationale
Record $343M Q2 revenue (+35% YoY), a first-ever $1B+ backlog, SK hynix's Dragonfly G5 Best Partner Award, and a 0.76 forward PEG collectively confirm ONTO is a genuine bottleneck-solver with near-term revenue visibility rather than a sentiment-only ride.
Material risks
- 1KLA, Camtek, and Nova are active competitors in every segment ONTO serves, and customers can dual-qualify tools, meaning the differentiated-but-not-sole-source position could erode faster than the backlog implies if a rival achieves comparable HBM hidden-defect detection.
- 2The $1.472B net convertible note balance (debt-to-FCF of 5.8x) materially increases financial leverage, and the Rigaku investment adds integration and regulatory-approval risk that could distract management and consume the $1.882B cash cushion during a potential capex downturn.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.