BN · rank #6 · 2026-10-19
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $147.49B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.08 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.85 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.55× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +20.3% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $147.49B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a French aerospace and defense conglomerate whose core earnings engine is the CFM International LEAP turbofan franchise, complemented by landing systems, aircraft equipment, and military optronics.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's structural chokepoint position — LEAP production above 500 engines per quarter with 41% YoY delivery growth, a massive installed-base aftermarket lock-in, and long qualification cycles that make displacement nearly impossible in the near term.
Material risks
- 1LEAP-1B profit recognition is gated on the Maverick HPT blade entering service (potentially late 2026 or early 2027), meaning reported earnings momentum could stall or reverse even as cash generation remains strong, directly undermining the margin-expansion signal.
- 2GE Aerospace holds 50% of CFM, and Boeing/Airbus retain substantial pricing leverage over engine selection and production rates, meaning Safran's bottleneck moat is partially shared and partially held hostage to OEM negotiating power.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.