BN · rank #10 · 2026-10-19
TSM
NYSE · $2.14T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.48 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +37.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +49.7% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +51.1% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.86 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.64× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +41.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +3% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.14T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant dedicated logic foundry, manufacturing advanced-node chips (N2, N3, N4) and CoWoS advanced packaging that are the physical bottleneck constraining AI accelerator supply for NVIDIA, AMD, Apple, and hyperscalers.
Rationale
The bottleneck_solvers signal is directly reinforced: TSMC controls scarce CoWoS and 2nm capacity with no near-term substitute, customers are actively increasing reservations, Q3 revenue beat guidance by ~$1B, and Q4 guidance of $52.3–54.3B implies the supply constraint is tightening rather than easing.
Material risks
- 1US/Taiwan export controls on sub-7nm AI chips to China could abruptly remove a meaningful demand pool and force customer reallocation, directly impairing the addressable bottleneck TSMC is solving.
- 2$160B+ in combined 2026 and Arizona capex commitments create material margin dilution and depreciation drag risk if AI capex cycles soften before new fabs reach utilization, with Dresden already loss-making during construction.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.