BN · rank #4 · 2026-10-20
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $41.61B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.90 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +33.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.25 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.10× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +51.1% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +5% |
| Market cap (USD) | $41.61B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is the dominant supplier of atomic-layer deposition and epitaxy equipment, directly enabling the GAA, 1.4nm, HBM, and advanced-packaging process transitions that define the current semiconductor capex cycle.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver signal is strongly reinforced: ASM's >55% single-wafer ALD share, record Q2 revenue, 20%+ guided H2 growth, raised 2027 outlook above prior targets, and management's explicit linkage to ALD-layer proliferation at each new node confirm a structural equipment bottleneck rather than a sentiment-driven trade.
Material risks
- 1Export-control escalation on China shipments is the most immediate thesis-breaker — management already flagged pull-forward ordering behavior, meaning a new restriction could simultaneously remove a revenue contributor and expose a demand air-pocket in subsequent quarters, with Q3 earnings on October 27 as the first hard data point.
- 2Applied Materials and Lam Research are actively contesting ALD and deposition share at maturing nodes; ASM's qualification advantage is real but not a permanent sole-source lock, and any customer qualification of a competing tool at a leading-edge node would structurally compress the bottleneck premium embedded in the current multiple.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.