BN · rank #9 · 2026-10-20
NVMI
NASDAQ · $10.15B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.32 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +26.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +29.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +28.8% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.4% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.46 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 4.23× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +61.4% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +5% |
| Market cap (USD) | $10.15B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Nova Ltd supplies inline metrology and process-control systems that measure critical dimensions, films, and packaging structures at advanced semiconductor nodes, serving logic, HBM, and advanced-packaging fabs globally.
Rationale
The WMC tool-of-record win at a leading global foundry for advanced-packaging layers, combined with 26% forward revenue growth and a 1.46 PEG against 61% analyst upside, directly validates the bottleneck-solver thesis—Nova is embedded in yield-critical workflows that customers cannot easily bypass.
Material risks
- 1China concentration at 33% of 2025 sales creates a hard revenue cliff if expanded U.S. export controls or licensing restrictions force customer substitution toward domestic Chinese metrology vendors, directly severing the attach-rate moat in that region.
- 2Two customers representing 33% of FY2025 revenue combined mean a single tool-of-record displacement by KLA or Onto Innovation at either anchor account would materially impair the revenue visibility that underpins the bottleneck-solver edge.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.