BN · rank #8 · 2026-10-20
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $146.39B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.19 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.85 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.55× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +21.0% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $146.39B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a French aerospace and defense conglomerate whose core earnings engine is the CFM LEAP turbofan franchise—spanning engine production, high-margin aftermarket services, landing systems, and military optronics—operated partly through a 50/50 JV with GE Aerospace.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's structural chokepoint position in LEAP aftermarket services for a 1,000+ engine installed base growing 41% YoY, long qualification cycles that prevent rapid substitution, and raised full-year guidance confirming durable revenue visibility rather than sentiment-driven rotation.
Material risks
- 1LEAP-1B profit recognition is gated on the Maverick HPT blade certification (potentially late 2026/early 2027), meaning reported margin expansion and the fwd_peg of 1.85x embed an earnings-timing assumption that could slip and compress near-term returns without invalidating the long-term thesis.
- 2GE Aerospace holds 50% of CFM and Boeing/Airbus retain substantial pricing leverage, meaning Safran's bottleneck moat is a shared and customer-constrained one—not a sole-supplier position—leaving it exposed to partner or OEM decisions that could erode aftermarket economics.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.