BN · rank #15 · 2026-10-21
HO
PARIS · EUR · $53.12B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.38 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +9.0% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +6.9% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +6.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.3% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.68 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.86× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +27.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $53.12B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Thales is a French defence electronics prime delivering radars, integrated air-missile defence systems, C2 software, and secure communications to NATO and allied governments, with a €52 billion order book anchoring multi-year revenue visibility.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver signal is structurally reinforced: Thales holds scarce, non-replicable radar manufacturing capacity (Ground Fire, GO12, SkyDefender) and system-integration rights for SAMP/T NG at a moment when European sovereign air-defence demand is accelerating, with H1 2026 defence order intake up 28% organically and book-to-bill of 1.14 confirming this is contract-driven, not sentiment-driven.
Material risks
- 1Patriot and IRIS-T/Rheinmetall alternatives could displace Thales as the preferred system integrator on new European air-defence tenders, eroding the single-source radar and C2 position that underpins the bottleneck thesis.
- 2HexaForce and DeepFinder Tactical carry execution and adoption risk as developmental offerings without disclosed large-scale production awards, meaning near-term margin expansion (only +34 bps modelled) could disappoint if ramp costs exceed guidance.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.