BN · rank #6 · 2026-10-22
AMAT
NASDAQ · $324.53B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.69 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +35.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +32.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +30.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.83 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 1.31× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +53.5% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +4% |
| Market cap (USD) | $324.53B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Applied Materials is the world's largest semiconductor equipment company, supplying deposition, etch, inspection, and packaging tools to leading-edge logic, DRAM, HBM, and advanced-packaging fabs globally.
Rationale
AMAT's eight-quarter customer order visibility, 25% YoY revenue growth, record FCF, sub-1 forward PEG of 0.83, and deep co-development partnerships with TSMC/SK hynix/Micron directly validate the bottleneck-solver thesis — it is embedded in the physical manufacturing stack for AI-chip production, not merely riding sentiment.
Material risks
- 1China export control escalation is the most acute thesis-breaker, as any material tightening of restrictions could abruptly remove a significant equipment revenue market and compress the forward growth trajectory underpinning the 35% revenue growth assumption.
- 2Semiconductor capex cyclicality — management's refusal to provide an industry spending forecast at the October event leaves the durability of the AI-driven equipment upcycle unquantified, and a spending plateau would directly deflate the 53% analyst upside embedded in the signal.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.