BN · rank #4 · 2026-10-22
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $41.68B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.89 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.4% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +33.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.25 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.10× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +51.1% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +5% |
| Market cap (USD) | $41.68B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is the dominant supplier of atomic-layer deposition and epitaxy equipment, capturing >55% single-wafer ALD share and directly enabling the GAA, 1.4nm, HBM, and advanced-packaging transitions that define the current semiconductor capex cycle.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver signal is strongly reinforced: ASM's ALD and epitaxy tools are structurally required at each successive node shrink, Q2 revenue hit a record €1.0B with 33% margins, management raised the 2027 revenue floor above €4.6B, and a 1.2x forward PEG against 30%+ revenue growth implies the market is not fully pricing the structural layer-count tailwind.
Material risks
- 1Export-control escalation on China shipments is the most acute near-term thesis disruptor — management already flagged potential pull-forward ordering, meaning a new restriction could simultaneously remove a revenue stream and expose a demand air-pocket in subsequent quarters.
- 2ALD share leadership is a qualification and process-chemistry advantage, not a contractually protected sole-source position, leaving ASM exposed to Applied Materials or Lam Research winning incremental deposition layers as GAA and advanced-packaging flows mature and standardize.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.