BN · rank #19 · 2026-10-22
AXON
NASDAQ · $32.71B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.09 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +29.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +6.6% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +6.2% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.4% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 2.11 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 13.77× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +69.3% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +90% |
| Market cap (USD) | $32.71B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Axon Enterprise sells an integrated public-safety platform spanning TASERs, body cameras, digital evidence, AI software, drones and counter-drone systems, anchored by $1.6B of ARR and $15.1B in future contracted bookings.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is reinforced by 126% net revenue retention, sole-source federal awards, deeply embedded agency workflows, and 35% YoY revenue growth that demonstrates Axon is the de facto clearinghouse for fragmented public-safety data and response infrastructure.
Material risks
- 1Motorola Solutions, Flock Safety and other vendors are actively competing across body-camera, evidence-management, ALPR and counter-drone segments, meaning Axon's bundling advantage is contested rather than structurally unassailable, and procurement protests could erode the sole-source pipeline.
- 2GAAP free cash flow was approximately negative $1M in Q2 against ~$1.8B in senior-notes principal, memory-component cost pressure is compressing margins, and a fwd PEG of 2.1x leaves little room for execution misses if growth decelerates from the guided 32%-34%.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.