BN · rank #13 · 2026-10-22
HO
PARIS · EUR · $53.14B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.37 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +9.0% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +6.9% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +6.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.3% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.68 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.86× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +27.7% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $53.14B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Thales S.A. is a French defence-electronics and aerospace prime contractor whose core moat lies in sovereign radar systems, integrated air-and-missile-defence (Ground Fire, SAMP/T NG), and secure C2 software for NATO and allied customers.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Thales's scarce, non-replicable radar manufacturing capacity being physically expanded (60% Dutch antenna uplift, 5x German GO12 ramp), a €52B order book with 1.14x H1 book-to-bill, and 28% organic Defence order growth—this is structural capacity constraint monetization, not sentiment rotation.
Material risks
- 1SAMP/T NG faces direct competition from US Patriot and European alternatives (IRIS-T, Rheinmetall, Leonardo), meaning Thales's system-integration role in the most critical bottleneck program is contestable, not sole-source, which is the sharpest structural disqualifier for this thesis.
- 2HexaForce and DeepFinder Tactical carry material execution and adoption risk as developmental offerings without disclosed large-scale production awards, meaning near-term revenue growth depends heavily on converting the existing backlog rather than new platform wins.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.