BN · rank #8 · 2026-10-22
TSM
NYSE · $2.24T (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.47 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +37.5% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +49.7% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +51.1% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | -1.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.86 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.64× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +35.3% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +3% |
| Market cap (USD) | $2.24T |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
TSMC is the world's dominant leading-edge foundry, fabricating advanced AI chips for virtually every major hyperscaler and GPU designer at nodes competitors cannot reliably match at scale.
Rationale
With 41.2% YoY revenue growth, 2nm already at 8% of wafer revenue, demand reportedly exceeding supply, and a forward PEG of 0.86 against 37.6% projected growth, TSMC is the textbook bottleneck-solver — the single choke point through which AI compute capacity must flow.
Material risks
- 1Hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI) are designing in-house AI accelerators that could erode merchant GPU volumes, and while TSMC still fabricates those chips today, a shift reduces customer concentration risk for TSMC's clients and softens the sole-bottleneck narrative over time.
- 2Gross margin already contracted 1.3pp sequentially on 2nm ramp costs and overseas-fab dilution, with US$60–64B capex guiding further pressure — the financial moat is intact but margin expansion is negative (-1.47pp signal), and a prolonged squeeze could compress the multiple even as revenue grows.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.