BN · rank #4 · 2026-10-23
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $38.85B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.91 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.4% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +33.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.25 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.10× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +61.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +5% |
| Market cap (USD) | $38.85B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is the dominant supplier of atomic-layer deposition and epitaxy equipment, capturing >55% single-wafer ALD share and directly enabling the GAA, 1.4nm, HBM, and advanced-packaging transitions that define the current semiconductor capex cycle.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver signal is strongly reinforced: ASM's ALD and epitaxy tools are structurally required at each successive node shrink, Q2 revenue hit a record €1.0B with 33% margins, management raised the 2027 revenue floor above €4.6B, and a fwd PEG of 1.25 prices in 30%+ growth at a discount to the structural opportunity.
Material risks
- 1Export-control escalation on China shipments is the most immediate thesis-breaker — management already flagged potential pull-forward ordering, meaning a new restriction could simultaneously remove a revenue stream and expose a demand air-pocket in subsequent quarters.
- 2ASM's >55% ALD share reflects qualification advantage, not a contractually locked sole-source position, leaving meaningful share-loss exposure to Applied Materials and Lam Research as ALD processes mature and customers dual-qualify suppliers at advanced nodes.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.