BN · rank #11 · 2026-10-23
NVMI
NASDAQ · $9.86B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.30 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +26.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +29.2% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +28.8% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.4% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.46 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 4.23× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +66.1% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +5% |
| Market cap (USD) | $9.86B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Nova Ltd supplies inline metrology and process-control systems that semiconductor fabs require to maintain yield at advanced nodes, advanced packaging, and HBM production.
Rationale
The WMC tool-of-record win at a leading global foundry for advanced-packaging layers, combined with 26% forward revenue growth and a 1.46 PEG against 66% analyst upside, directly validates the bottleneck-solver thesis that Nova holds embedded, hard-to-displace positions in critical process-control workflows.
Material risks
- 1China concentration at 33% of 2025 sales creates a binary export-control risk that could sever roughly one-third of revenue if licensing restrictions tighten, directly undermining the revenue-visibility pillar of the bottleneck-solver thesis.
- 2Two customers representing 33% of FY2025 sales combined mean a single tool-of-record loss or fab-spending pause at either anchor customer could materially impair near-term revenue without a structural thesis break being required.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.