BN · rank #8 · 2026-10-23
ONTO
NYSE · $9.75B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.41 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.8% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.8% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.2% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.76 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 5.83× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +92.9% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +15% |
| Market cap (USD) | $9.75B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Onto Innovation supplies semiconductor metrology, inspection, and process-control systems critical to advanced-node, HBM, and AI-chip manufacturing, with a $1B+ backlog and accelerating revenue growth.
Rationale
ONTO screens validly as a bottleneck-solver because it holds customer-qualified process knowledge and installed tools at HBM and advanced-node fabs where switching costs are high, evidenced by SK hynix's Best Partner Award, record backlog, and 50% sequential advanced-node revenue growth in Q2.
Material risks
- 1Onto occupies a differentiated but contested position against KLA, Nova, and Camtek — not a sole-source moat — meaning a competitor qualification event at a key HBM or advanced-node customer could rapidly erode backlog conversion and the bottleneck-solver thesis.
- 2The $1.5B zero-coupon convertible note issuance funds the Rigaku stake but adds meaningful future dilution or repayment pressure against Q2 operating cash flow of only $62M, creating financial fragility if capex spending by memory or AI-chip customers softens.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.