BN · rank #8 · 2026-10-23
SAF
PARIS · EUR · $140.31B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | -0.18 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +10.2% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +11.6% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.5% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.85 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.55× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +28.3% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | — |
| Market cap (USD) | $140.31B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Safran is a French aerospace and defense conglomerate whose core earnings engine is CFM International, a 50/50 JV with GE Aerospace holding sole-source positions on the Boeing 737 MAX and COMAC C919 narrowbody platforms alongside a growing high-margin aftermarket business.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver thesis is directly reinforced by Safran's structural chokepoint in narrowbody propulsion — a 12,900+ engine backlog, 41% H1 LEAP delivery growth, and mid-twenties dollar growth in civil spare parts confirm the company is monetizing a durable supply constraint rather than riding sentiment.
Material risks
- 1Airbus and Boeing OEM production-rate ceilings can hard-cap LEAP delivery volumes regardless of demand, meaning the bottleneck Safran solves is partially upstream of its own control and could stall earnings recognition — specifically flagged by management around the LEAP-1B blade entry-into-service timing.
- 2Pratt & Whitney's GTF recovery on Airbus A320neo family programs erodes CFM's non-exclusive narrowbody share over time, and any future next-generation narrowbody engine competition could structurally unwind the sole-source moat that underpins the entire thesis.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.