BN · rank #7 · 2026-10-26
AMAT
NASDAQ · $299.38B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.70 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +35.3% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +32.1% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +30.0% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +2.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.83 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 1.31× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +66.4% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +4% |
| Market cap (USD) | $299.38B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Applied Materials is the world's largest semiconductor equipment company, supplying materials-engineering, process, packaging, and inspection tools to leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM, and advanced-packaging customers riding the AI-driven capex cycle.
Rationale
AMAT screens validly as a bottleneck-solver because it holds explicit #1 process-equipment positions in foundry/logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging, targets 200bps+ WFE share gains through 2030, and its $5B EPIC Center deepens customer co-development lock-in that structurally reinforces switching costs — all consistent with a durable manufacturing chokepoint thesis.
Material risks
- 1China (~28% of Q3 revenue) faces expanding U.S. export restrictions already quantified as a ~$600M fiscal-2026 headwind, and foreign peers (Tokyo Electron, Lam) can serve restricted customers that AMAT cannot, directly eroding the bottleneck position in the world's largest fab-investment market.
- 2AMAT lacks disclosed long-term contracts or hard backlog visibility, meaning the bottleneck-solver thesis depends on continued AI-driven WFE spending; a capex pause by TSMC, Samsung, or memory customers would rapidly compress orders and unwind the 66% analyst-upside embedded in the forward PEG of 0.83.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.