BN · rank #4 · 2026-10-26
ASM
AMSTERDAM · EUR · $38.27B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.89 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +30.4% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +33.0% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +31.9% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.1% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.20 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.10× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +64.1% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +5% |
| Market cap (USD) | $38.27B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
ASM International is a pure-play ALD and epitaxy equipment supplier whose tools are structurally required at each advanced-node transition, from GAA at 2nm to molybdenum-ALD wins already secured at 1.4nm.
Rationale
The bottleneck-solver signal is directly reinforced by ASM's sole-source-like ALD process know-how, rising ALD/epitaxy intensity per wafer as transistors shrink, record Q2 ALD sales, 30%+ forward revenue growth, and a fwd PEG of 1.2 that prices in growth conservatively relative to 64% analyst upside.
Material risks
- 1China export-control tightening is the sharpest near-term thesis disruptor — management flagged uncertain visibility on China orders, which may reflect pre-buy pull-forward that creates a demand air pocket once restrictions land, directly compressing the order book that underpins the bottleneck-solver moat.
- 2Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Tokyo Electron are actively co-developing competing ALD and epitaxy platforms with leading-edge customers; a customer qualification shift away from ASM's ALD or molybdenum-ALD process at 1.4nm would erode the single-source position that justifies the premium multiple.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.