BN · rank #16 · 2026-10-26
FORM
NASDAQ · $7.70B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.20 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +18.4% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +13.7% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +12.8% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +0.9% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 1.39 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 0.22× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +54.5% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +45% |
| Market cap (USD) | $7.70B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
FormFactor designs and manufactures probe cards, probe stations, and semiconductor test systems that are critical gatekeepers for wafer-level characterization and production test of DRAM, HBM, and advanced-logic devices.
Rationale
Record Q2 revenue of $258.2M (+31.9% YoY), Q3 guidance of ~$270M, a 45% EPS surprise, the Teradyne $300M strategic equity partnership, and a new Texas fab all reinforce that FormFactor is a genuine structural bottleneck in HBM/advanced-packaging test—exactly the thesis this strategy targets.
Material risks
- 1A single memory customer at 22.9% of fiscal-2025 revenue means any procurement pause or in-house probing investment by that customer (likely SK Hynix or Micron) directly breaks the bottleneck-solver thesis by removing the largest demand anchor.
- 2Technoprobe's vertical-MEMS technology is a credible share-taking threat in logic/foundry, and the probe-card market's fragmentation means FormFactor lacks sole-source protection—the moat is qualification depth and scale, not exclusivity, leaving it vulnerable to pricing pressure or tech-path displacement.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 2 of 3 voted to proceed.