BN · rank #15 · 2026-10-26
HWM
NYSE · $74.14B (USD)
The exact numbers the algorithm saw.
| Composite score Z-score blend of the factors below; drives the rank. | 0.26 |
|---|---|
| Forward revenue growth Consensus forward revenue growth. | +14.1% |
| Forward net margin Consensus forward net margin. | +21.9% |
| Net margin TTM Trailing twelve month net margin. | +20.5% |
| Margin expansion Forward minus trailing net margin (percentage points). | +1.4% |
| Forward PEG Forward P/E to growth. Below 1 is cheap for the growth. | 0.80 |
| Debt / FCF Net debt relative to free cash flow. Lower is safer. | 2.52× |
| Analyst upside Spread between the consensus 12m target and the current price. | +74.6% |
| Last EPS surprise Most recent reported EPS versus consensus. | +8% |
| Market cap (USD) | $74.14B |
The AI research card
Independent qualitative review of each pick before the order is placed. On the rare day the research service is unavailable, the paper book trades on the quant ranking alone and no card appears here.
Summary
Howmet Aerospace manufactures highly engineered, qualification-intensive engine components, aerospace fasteners, and structural parts for commercial aerospace, defense, and industrial gas-turbine customers where certified production capacity is the primary competitive moat.
Rationale
HWM is a textbook bottleneck-solver — long-term customer contracts through decade-end, multi-year qualification cycles, and record aircraft backlogs create durable revenue visibility that directly validates the strategy's structural-moat logic, while a 0.80x forward PEG against 14%+ revenue growth and 74% analyst upside suggests the market has not fully priced the compounding.
Material risks
- 1Customer concentration at GE Aerospace and RTX/Pratt & Whitney (~10-14% of sales each) means a production-rate cut or insourcing decision by either OEM could materially impair the bottleneck thesis without any competitive failure on Howmet's part.
- 2The ~$1.8B CAM acquisition elevated leverage, and Q3 earnings land October 29 — any guidance miss or integration friction three days after the as-of-date creates near-term binary event risk that could reset the multiple before the thesis matures.
AI verdict council
Each pick is reviewed independently by 3 models before any order. 3 of 3 voted to proceed.